An introduction to Plausible Futures
Its better to prepare for what might happen, then hyper-focus on what we wish or are afraid will happen
Today, as news of Donald Trump’s re-election floods my feed, so do the waves of messages brimming with anxiety about the future. Over the next few days, media from across the globe will likely amplify that collective worry, speculating on what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world. One piece worth noting is a recent video from Jon Stewart, the (sometimes) host of The Daily Show. In just three minutes, he offers a perspective that’s refreshing in the current tide of uncertainty. I recommend watching.
Two of Stewart’s ideas struck a chord with me, and they deserve some reflection:
We don’t really know what’s going to happen tomorrow — we only think we know. There’s a big difference between what we assume and what reality might bring, and that gap can hold real potential.
Regardless of politics, there are urgent, complex problems that remain unresolved — and they affect us all. From healthcare to the justice system, social cohesion to education, many issues will persist whether they become policy priorities or not. Crises with shared impact often can’t be ignored forever.
It's from here that I felt compelled to bring Plausible Futures into this space. In times like these, when emotions are high and predictions feel inevitable, it’s easy to get swept up in the wave of what we think will happen. In that state of anxiety and anger, our thinking can become rigid and reactionary. And while that’s a totally understandable response to the current moment, it can also lock us into a singular perspective, leaving us less able to influence our paths forward.
Why Plausible Futures?
The concept of Plausible Futures as a tool for navigating uncertainty has been around for decades, with roots in strategic planning and scenario-building. Herman Kahn and the RAND Corporation developed early models for considering multiple future scenarios in the 1950s and 60s. But it was Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s who really crystallized the power of plausible futures in decision-making. He emphasized that creating scenarios wasn’t about predicting a singular outcome but expanding our mental flexibility — and that’s a skill we need now more than ever.
Embracing Plausible Futures: A New Way to Think About Tomorrow
As I dive deeper into futurism, my thinking about the future has taken shape in two broad ways:
First, there’s predictive futurism, which uses today’s data to forecast tomorrow’s outcomes. This is the realm of people trading in stock exchanges or farmers relying on almanacs — it’s about using patterns and probabilities to chart a likely path forward. Historians, too, fall into this category when they look at societal cycles to project how cultures might evolve or revolt.
Then there’s plausibility-based futurism. Instead of banking on probability, it focuses on identifying real-world signals to map out a range of plausible outcomes. Imagine a doctor telling you your risk of a heart attack based on population averages — that’s predictive. But if you’re looking at your unique behavior, habits, and community influences, that’s plausible futurism. It acknowledges multiple possible futures based on how we act, rather than calculating probabilities on what is likely to happen.
Truth be told, I’ve fallen out with prediction and into plausibility. Here’s why: predictive models can sometimes feel rigid, relying on yesterday’s data to predict tomorrow’s world, which is evolving faster than ever. Plausibility-based futurism, on the other hand, feels alive and adaptive. It lets us consider not just what might happen, but what could happen depending on our choices.
This brings us to two important frameworks in plausible futurism:
Three Horizons Framework (graphic from the International Training Centre Futures Toolkit): Originally developed by Bill Sharpe and others at the International Futures Forum, this model helps us map out the future through three overlapping time horizons. Horizon 1 is our present state, Horizon 2 is a transition space where disruptive changes begin to appear, and Horizon 3 is a vision of a transformed future. This approach allows us to explore how our current behaviors and innovations might evolve through different phases — and which ideas from the present may eventually become irrelevant or replaced by Horizon 3 possibilities.
The Futures Cone (graphic from Eagle Edge Strategic Foresight): Proposed by futurologist Joseph Voros, the Futures Cone visualizes possible futures in a widening arc from the present. It categorizes futures into four broad types: possible, plausible, probable, and preferable. This model is valuable because it helps us see that the future isn’t a single destination — it’s a broad space where we can navigate among different outcomes depending on the choices we make.
In the coming posts, I’ll share some of the plausible futures I see for areas like healthcare, culture, and technology. Along the way, I hope we can build a community of people who are excited about solving problems and envisioning a better world, no matter what the news cycle says.
In the near term, expect to see posts on:
The future of primary care in Canada
Quebec’s proposal to require physicians to work in the public sector, and what could unfold from that
Reflections on how change happens at local, regional, and national levels
Lots more!
For me, tackling big, complex problems matters more than any political agenda. I’d bet a lot of you feel the same. So let’s keep exploring and see what the future holds — together.